***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 21.1 22.6 22.9 -0.1 48.3 49.3 21.3 22.7 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.4 23.3 0.1 50.6 50.6 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.5 23.4 0.0 50.4 50.6 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.4 16.6 21.3 0.3 53.8 53.3 14.7 16.2 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.0 24.0 21.7 0.2 52.1 52.0 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 21.0 23.3 19.7 0.2 52.9 52.2 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.8 23.1 -0.1 49.3 49.7 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.1 13.0 20.2 0.2 51.9 51.4 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.7 21.9 0.1 51.5 51.5 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.3 20.8 0.2 52.0 51.5 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.9 21.6 0.3 53.5 52.8 22.0 23.6 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 23.6 23.1 21.3 0.2 51.9 51.7 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.9 24.0 20.6 0.0 50.5 50.7 22.3 23.9 25.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.4 21.5 0.0 49.6 49.2 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.9 22.2 0.4 55.2 54.2 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.7 24.8 21.4 0.3 53.5 52.9 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.7 23.2 0.3 53.2 52.3 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.6 20.2 0.1 51.2 50.7 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.2 23.5 0.1 51.5 51.1 21.6 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.8 18.0 0.1 50.9 50.4 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.4 22.6 0.0 49.6 50.2 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.5 23.0 0.2 52.8 51.9 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.5 23.5 0.2 52.5 51.6 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.3 21.6 0.1 51.0 50.6 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.4 23.0 21.4 -0.1 48.9 49.8 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.7 20.9 0.1 50.9 51.2 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.4 22.9 22.1 -0.1 48.3 49.2 21.7 23.1 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 21.8 24.0 21.8 0.4 55.1 54.2 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.1 18.1 19.3 0.0 50.5 50.1 16.3 18.0 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.0 23.2 -0.1 49.2 49.6 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------