***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 25.1 25.0 25.2 0.8 65.9 62.6 23.1 24.1 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 25.3 25.4 25.6 1.0 69.5 65.1 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.7 25.3 25.6 1.0 67.7 64.0 23.5 24.4 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 18.6 18.9 23.4 1.4 74.3 69.4 16.4 17.4 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 25.9 26.1 24.0 1.2 71.3 67.1 24.0 24.9 25.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 25.1 25.3 21.7 1.2 72.2 67.2 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 24.3 24.9 25.4 0.9 67.6 63.7 23.1 24.0 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.6 22.1 1.2 71.3 66.6 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 25.5 25.7 24.4 1.2 71.5 67.3 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 25.3 25.4 22.8 1.1 70.2 66.0 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 25.7 26.0 24.1 1.3 73.3 68.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.3 23.4 1.3 72.7 67.8 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 26.2 26.3 23.3 1.2 72.1 67.6 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.6 25.3 23.8 0.9 67.6 63.9 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 26.2 26.5 25.1 1.5 76.5 71.3 24.0 25.0 25.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 26.7 27.0 23.8 1.4 74.6 69.6 24.6 25.6 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.9 25.5 1.3 74.1 68.9 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.3 24.4 22.0 1.0 68.7 64.6 22.5 23.4 24.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 25.1 25.3 25.8 1.2 72.0 67.1 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 20.6 20.7 20.0 1.1 70.8 66.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.5 25.1 1.0 67.4 64.0 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 25.2 25.4 25.5 1.3 73.5 68.5 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 25.3 25.6 25.9 1.5 75.9 70.4 23.3 24.2 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 25.0 25.1 23.9 1.1 69.2 65.1 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 25.3 25.3 23.9 0.9 67.6 64.1 23.4 24.4 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.9 22.8 1.1 70.4 65.9 23.9 24.8 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 25.1 25.2 24.5 0.9 67.4 63.9 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.5 24.2 1.5 75.7 70.6 24.1 25.0 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 19.8 19.8 21.2 1.0 68.4 64.4 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 24.4 25.0 25.5 0.8 66.1 62.5 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------