***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 3.0 2.9 2.3 20.2 24.5 19.0 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 4.5 5.2 2.8 30.8 32.0 23.8 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 4.5 5.3 2.9 24.7 31.2 23.3 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 2.9 3.2 3.0 22.7 27.7 20.4 4.4 9.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 2.8 3.2 2.7 22.4 26.5 19.8 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 2.8 3.6 4.1 27.8 31.0 23.8 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 3.5 3.7 2.2 22.1 26.6 20.3 4.7 8.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 7.0 9.2 4.7 34.2 35.3 27.4 8.4 15.2 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 3.4 4.6 3.8 29.4 32.2 23.7 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 4.8 6.5 4.9 33.9 34.8 26.3 6.1 10.9 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 3.4 3.9 2.7 23.6 28.0 20.2 5.0 9.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 3.5 3.7 2.8 24.2 28.8 22.4 4.7 9.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 3.4 3.2 2.1 16.6 23.5 17.4 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.6 6.9 4.8 35.4 35.4 27.9 6.3 11.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 1.3 1.7 2.6 22.2 29.9 18.8 2.1 4.7 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 2.3 2.5 2.3 18.7 25.1 18.4 3.8 7.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 4.2 4.4 2.5 26.7 26.6 21.0 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.4 6.4 6.5 41.5 38.4 30.1 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 4.9 6.4 3.2 33.6 34.2 25.3 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 5.5 6.8 6.5 39.9 34.2 28.6 6.5 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.9 3.4 3.2 25.5 30.1 22.5 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 7.2 8.9 3.1 35.5 32.5 24.4 9.0 12.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 5.0 6.5 3.4 32.6 34.7 26.2 6.2 10.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 4.4 6.4 5.0 36.2 36.9 27.8 5.5 10.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.9 2.8 2.8 21.7 28.0 21.4 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.3 2.8 28.1 31.8 23.2 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 2.8 3.0 2.5 21.5 26.9 20.4 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 2.3 2.7 2.8 21.5 27.8 20.0 3.5 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.2 8.5 6.4 41.2 37.1 29.7 7.1 14.2 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 3.9 4.1 2.4 24.4 29.1 21.7 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------