***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.4 19.2 8.6 111.7 68.9 40.3 4.9 9.9 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 3.8 14.6 7.6 95.2 63.8 39.4 4.4 9.0 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.1 19.3 9.3 128.5 72.8 43.1 4.4 8.8 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 17.7 10.4 125.8 72.5 40.8 3.9 8.1 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.7 17.4 10.2 128.3 72.9 41.2 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.9 9.8 103.2 67.1 43.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.7 14.5 7.6 97.1 64.8 39.8 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.4 26.5 11.2 134.2 74.1 46.5 7.0 12.8 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.8 19.9 11.8 142.0 75.9 43.7 3.9 7.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 20.1 12.8 139.5 75.3 46.6 5.1 9.4 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.8 9.4 118.1 70.4 40.5 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.0 13.9 8.7 122.1 71.3 43.0 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.9 11.4 7.7 98.8 65.1 42.0 3.8 7.1 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.0 23.5 11.4 116.7 69.8 44.6 5.4 11.6 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.6 12.6 9.4 118.5 71.5 37.1 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.3 11.0 8.2 102.0 66.1 39.1 3.5 6.7 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 4.0 12.5 7.2 80.4 59.6 36.6 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 25.8 14.5 144.7 76.3 48.7 6.1 11.4 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.8 14.8 8.1 102.3 65.7 40.5 4.4 8.8 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.5 29.3 14.6 150.6 77.4 51.0 6.7 12.6 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.4 24.7 10.3 136.2 74.7 43.1 4.5 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.4 13.0 8.5 90.7 62.0 37.5 3.5 8.2 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.1 15.8 8.6 111.0 68.2 41.8 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.5 26.4 12.1 132.2 73.7 45.1 4.9 10.8 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.2 19.6 9.6 117.4 70.3 42.0 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 3.3 14.4 7.8 120.2 71.1 45.5 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 4.0 19.0 8.9 108.8 68.2 40.7 4.1 9.5 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.8 12.0 9.9 118.8 71.0 38.6 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 36.8 14.5 141.0 75.4 48.5 8.8 16.5 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 4.0 15.5 8.1 107.9 67.4 41.5 4.6 8.8 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------