***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.9 8.9 101.0 67.0 44.9 3.3 6.3 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 11.2 9.3 107.1 67.9 43.2 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.6 9.8 114.8 70.5 46.9 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.6 16.1 9.7 117.8 70.9 41.8 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.3 10.6 9.5 118.1 70.7 44.9 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.3 12.1 10.3 119.9 71.2 45.6 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 3.6 11.1 8.5 95.7 64.9 42.2 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 22.3 10.9 141.3 75.8 52.5 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 2.4 12.2 10.3 119.7 71.3 47.0 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.2 14.8 11.5 133.6 74.2 51.6 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.5 11.7 9.3 129.4 73.3 47.7 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.8 12.3 9.2 137.1 75.0 48.4 2.8 5.5 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.1 13.1 9.9 121.3 71.9 45.2 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.6 19.5 13.4 129.6 73.6 50.2 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.3 11.7 9.5 115.9 70.8 38.4 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 2.5 9.8 9.6 125.0 72.5 44.7 2.6 4.8 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.4 8.6 8.8 92.4 63.6 39.5 2.7 5.4 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 15.6 12.4 121.2 71.4 51.0 2.8 6.6 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 13.1 9.9 113.5 69.7 45.3 3.2 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 18.1 14.3 129.8 73.4 52.3 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.8 11.9 9.6 114.3 70.3 45.4 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.1 11.0 10.0 97.4 65.4 41.7 3.5 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.4 10.3 116.5 70.4 46.9 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.0 15.1 11.3 114.6 70.2 48.2 3.6 7.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.0 11.2 9.7 106.5 68.6 44.0 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.0 11.5 8.2 110.3 69.2 42.9 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.3 9.2 99.5 66.6 44.3 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.1 11.5 9.8 126.1 72.8 41.3 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.6 23.6 13.2 124.2 72.1 51.7 4.9 10.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.6 9.5 9.4 106.3 67.9 44.4 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------