***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 14.1 16.9 19.9 4.3 98.4 96.1 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 14.0 16.1 18.6 3.4 95.8 92.0 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 16.2 18.7 19.3 3.7 97.0 93.9 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 11.5 14.2 16.9 3.6 97.1 94.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 13.1 15.7 17.1 3.6 97.2 94.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 11.9 14.2 14.9 3.5 98.0 96.2 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 14.1 15.8 18.9 3.5 95.6 92.0 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 7.4 10.2 15.2 3.7 98.1 96.0 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 13.9 16.1 17.6 3.5 97.3 94.8 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 13.8 16.3 16.0 3.7 97.9 95.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 13.6 15.8 16.5 3.4 97.1 94.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 11.9 14.3 16.0 3.7 97.9 95.7 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 13.1 14.9 15.3 3.0 95.1 92.8 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 14.4 16.1 16.7 2.8 94.1 90.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 14.9 16.6 18.5 3.3 96.7 94.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 14.4 16.5 16.3 3.4 96.8 94.5 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 14.3 16.0 17.7 3.0 95.2 90.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 12.8 15.3 14.9 3.3 97.0 94.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 14.0 16.0 18.7 3.4 96.1 92.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 8.6 10.9 12.9 3.3 97.4 94.9 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 13.7 16.2 19.2 3.8 97.9 95.2 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 13.4 14.8 17.8 2.7 93.4 88.3 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 13.7 16.1 18.8 3.5 96.8 93.0 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 13.9 15.7 16.9 3.2 96.2 93.0 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 14.2 17.0 18.9 4.2 98.1 95.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 13.0 15.0 15.5 3.7 97.1 95.1 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 14.7 18.1 19.1 4.1 97.9 95.5 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 12.8 14.8 17.4 3.4 96.6 94.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 11.4 13.8 14.1 3.2 96.8 93.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 14.4 16.8 19.3 3.7 96.8 93.6 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------