***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 10.1 10.7 14.3 -0.5 40.0 42.1 10.3 11.3 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.8 10.4 14.0 -0.8 34.4 37.5 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.4 13.0 14.1 -0.6 37.9 40.6 12.6 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.8 12.2 -0.5 40.5 42.7 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.7 9.6 11.9 -0.4 42.1 43.8 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.4 10.6 -0.1 48.7 48.5 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 10.2 10.7 14.0 -0.9 33.2 36.5 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.8 5.4 10.6 0.1 52.1 50.9 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 10.4 11.2 12.3 -0.3 43.5 44.7 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.0 -0.1 47.7 47.9 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.6 11.6 -0.2 46.8 47.1 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.1 9.4 11.6 0.1 51.8 50.3 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.9 10.1 11.0 0.0 50.3 49.1 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 10.7 11.2 12.1 -0.6 36.9 39.9 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.7 13.1 -0.3 43.3 44.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.4 11.5 -0.1 47.5 47.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 10.6 11.0 13.3 -1.0 30.2 34.0 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.7 10.4 -0.2 45.6 46.5 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.8 14.1 -0.7 36.7 39.4 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 6.0 8.8 -0.2 46.4 47.1 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.8 10.5 13.5 -0.4 42.3 43.8 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 9.7 10.0 13.4 -1.0 30.9 34.8 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.3 13.8 -0.5 39.6 41.8 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.9 12.1 -0.4 40.6 42.8 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.7 12.9 -0.4 41.7 43.7 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.3 10.3 11.2 -0.1 48.7 48.3 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.8 13.5 -0.5 41.1 43.1 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.6 9.4 12.6 -0.4 42.4 43.8 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.8 9.8 -0.2 44.5 45.6 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.0 14.3 -0.7 35.7 38.6 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------