***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.6 14.1 -0.1 47.8 48.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.7 13.9 -0.3 44.3 45.5 9.9 11.0 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.2 14.0 -0.2 46.8 47.6 12.3 13.4 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.3 8.6 11.7 -0.2 45.8 46.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.4 11.5 -0.1 48.8 49.4 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.5 9.9 0.2 53.0 52.7 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.1 13.9 -0.3 43.7 45.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 10.2 0.4 57.8 56.3 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.4 11.9 0.0 50.3 50.6 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.3 10.6 0.2 53.9 53.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.8 11.1 0.1 52.5 52.4 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.7 11.0 0.3 56.6 55.5 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.1 10.3 0.2 53.1 52.7 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.3 11.9 -0.2 45.9 47.0 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.6 12.4 -0.3 45.0 46.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.5 10.8 0.1 51.5 51.5 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.4 11.1 13.2 -0.5 40.6 42.8 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.0 10.1 0.2 53.3 52.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.1 13.9 -0.2 45.8 46.6 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.2 8.6 0.2 53.9 53.0 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 13.2 0.0 49.3 49.6 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.3 10.1 13.3 -0.4 41.1 43.4 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.6 13.6 -0.1 47.6 48.0 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.0 11.9 0.0 49.2 49.7 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.4 12.6 -0.1 47.8 48.3 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.2 10.5 0.0 50.0 50.6 9.2 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.5 13.3 -0.1 47.9 48.4 10.4 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.7 11.9 -0.2 46.2 47.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.1 9.6 0.2 53.3 52.8 7.7 8.9 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.3 14.1 -0.3 45.3 46.2 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------