***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.4 15.4 1.0 75.0 70.2 11.0 11.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.1 14.9 0.6 66.6 63.6 10.8 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.4 15.2 0.7 70.8 67.0 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.1 12.9 0.7 71.1 67.3 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 11.2 11.3 12.8 0.8 73.2 69.1 9.8 10.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.2 10.5 11.2 1.0 78.6 73.4 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.2 15.0 0.6 66.2 63.3 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 6.1 6.7 11.4 1.2 84.0 78.2 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.2 12.3 13.2 0.9 74.7 70.3 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 12.0 12.3 11.9 1.0 80.2 75.1 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.8 12.4 0.9 76.7 71.9 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 10.3 10.7 12.3 1.2 82.3 76.6 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.2 11.6 0.9 76.2 71.3 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.4 13.0 0.5 65.8 63.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.8 13.9 0.7 71.7 67.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 12.4 12.6 12.2 0.9 76.0 71.3 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.3 14.2 0.4 61.4 59.5 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 11.0 11.2 11.2 0.9 77.1 72.9 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.3 15.0 0.7 68.8 65.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.3 9.5 0.9 77.7 73.1 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 11.9 12.0 14.6 0.9 74.3 69.8 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.3 14.2 0.3 59.8 57.9 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 11.9 11.9 14.8 0.8 71.8 67.9 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.0 13.0 0.7 71.5 68.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.6 14.1 1.0 75.7 71.0 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.3 11.8 1.0 77.3 72.9 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.7 12.9 14.6 1.0 75.3 70.7 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.8 13.2 0.7 71.0 67.3 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 10.0 10.2 10.6 0.8 76.2 72.1 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.6 15.3 0.7 69.5 65.9 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------