***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 27.1 29.9 29.6 4.1 93.6 88.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 27.3 29.1 29.1 3.3 87.4 81.6 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 27.1 29.5 29.5 3.8 91.6 85.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 19.8 22.2 27.7 4.2 93.6 88.8 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 27.7 30.9 28.9 4.7 95.6 90.5 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 26.6 30.0 27.2 5.3 97.4 94.0 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 26.9 28.6 28.9 3.2 86.6 81.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 15.9 19.4 27.6 5.4 97.4 93.2 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 27.4 30.5 29.6 4.8 95.8 90.6 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 27.0 30.4 28.3 5.2 96.7 91.9 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 27.5 30.9 28.9 5.0 96.4 91.6 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 26.9 30.8 28.8 5.6 97.8 94.0 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 27.8 31.2 29.0 5.4 97.2 93.6 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 27.0 28.7 27.3 3.2 86.6 80.2 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 27.6 30.0 29.8 4.1 93.9 89.4 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 28.5 32.0 29.1 5.3 97.1 93.1 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 26.2 27.0 27.5 2.2 77.8 72.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 26.0 28.7 26.6 4.5 94.2 88.4 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 27.0 29.2 29.3 3.6 89.7 83.5 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 22.2 25.4 25.2 5.0 96.4 91.7 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 27.3 30.3 30.1 4.5 94.8 89.3 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 26.7 27.6 27.4 2.2 78.5 72.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 27.0 29.7 29.4 4.0 92.3 85.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 26.8 29.0 27.8 3.8 90.7 84.6 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 27.3 29.9 28.6 4.2 93.6 88.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 27.4 30.7 28.4 5.4 97.5 94.3 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 27.2 29.9 28.8 4.0 93.2 87.9 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 27.6 30.0 29.0 4.4 94.4 90.0 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 21.5 24.2 25.7 4.4 93.9 88.1 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 27.1 29.5 29.6 3.7 90.8 85.2 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------