***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 22.2 22.4 22.9 -1.9 26.3 30.3 23.1 24.7 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 22.3 22.3 22.9 -2.2 23.4 27.8 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 22.2 22.2 22.8 -2.2 24.0 28.2 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 15.1 15.2 21.3 -1.9 26.9 31.6 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 22.9 23.0 21.4 -1.8 28.5 32.8 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.5 20.0 -1.2 34.9 38.4 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 22.0 21.9 22.8 -2.2 23.5 27.8 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 11.3 12.1 20.3 -1.2 35.5 38.8 11.9 13.4 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.6 22.7 21.7 -1.8 28.6 32.7 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 22.3 22.7 20.5 -1.6 31.2 35.1 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 22.6 23.3 21.3 -1.4 32.8 36.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 21.8 22.8 21.4 -1.0 37.0 40.2 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 22.7 23.6 21.0 -1.1 36.2 39.4 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 22.4 22.4 20.9 -2.3 23.2 27.5 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 23.4 23.4 22.0 -1.7 28.0 33.0 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 23.3 24.1 21.3 -1.3 33.8 37.7 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 21.5 21.2 22.2 -2.6 20.3 24.9 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 21.4 21.7 19.6 -1.8 28.8 32.6 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 22.2 22.3 22.9 -2.2 24.0 28.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 17.4 18.0 18.0 -1.4 32.7 35.9 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 22.7 22.7 22.3 -2.0 26.7 30.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 22.2 22.0 22.2 -2.5 21.0 25.8 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 22.3 22.4 22.7 -2.1 24.8 29.1 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 22.1 22.1 21.0 -2.2 24.7 28.9 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 22.4 22.5 21.4 -1.9 26.8 31.0 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 22.5 23.5 21.2 -1.1 35.6 38.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 22.3 22.5 22.1 -1.8 27.0 31.0 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 23.4 23.5 21.8 -1.7 28.7 33.6 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 16.8 17.1 18.8 -1.8 29.0 32.8 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 22.2 22.2 23.0 -2.2 24.2 28.4 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------