***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.8 22.9 -0.1 48.4 48.9 21.5 22.9 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.9 22.8 -0.3 46.3 47.3 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.1 22.8 -0.3 46.3 47.4 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.9 15.8 20.8 -0.4 45.2 46.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.6 21.1 -0.2 47.3 48.0 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.1 19.5 0.2 52.0 51.7 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.6 22.8 -0.2 47.2 47.9 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.9 20.1 0.3 53.2 53.0 11.0 12.6 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.4 21.6 -0.1 48.7 49.2 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.2 20.5 0.1 50.9 51.1 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.6 21.0 0.1 50.7 50.6 22.0 23.6 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.1 21.1 0.3 53.4 53.0 21.1 22.8 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.0 20.5 0.2 52.0 51.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.1 21.2 -0.3 46.9 48.1 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.1 21.2 -0.3 46.1 46.7 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.4 20.8 0.0 50.5 50.5 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 23.0 21.8 22.1 -0.6 42.5 44.3 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.4 19.9 0.0 50.4 50.8 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 22.9 -0.3 46.5 47.5 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 16.5 18.6 18.0 0.1 51.5 51.7 16.7 18.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.2 22.2 -0.2 47.1 48.0 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.9 22.5 22.1 -0.6 42.6 44.5 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.0 22.8 -0.2 47.4 48.4 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.0 21.2 -0.2 47.8 48.8 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.8 21.2 -0.2 47.3 47.9 21.6 23.0 24.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.5 20.5 0.1 50.8 51.1 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.0 22.0 -0.1 49.2 49.5 21.6 23.0 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.2 21.2 -0.3 46.5 47.0 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.9 19.0 0.0 50.4 50.8 16.1 17.8 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.8 23.0 -0.2 47.2 48.0 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------