***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.3 9.9 96.1 63.6 51.9 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.9 10.9 86.4 60.9 48.7 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.5 10.4 89.9 60.7 49.9 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.4 11.6 8.0 65.7 53.0 42.8 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.6 8.0 62.2 49.7 41.6 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.0 7.6 6.9 61.1 48.9 39.4 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.0 10.4 10.8 92.5 63.1 49.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.6 14.7 8.2 66.5 48.7 41.9 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.3 9.0 73.4 55.2 47.0 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.9 10.1 9.7 70.0 51.7 45.1 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.9 6.2 6.1 53.7 44.6 36.8 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.6 5.3 53.4 42.1 34.8 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.6 4.7 42.0 33.6 28.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.9 13.2 87.2 60.1 50.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.1 7.2 64.5 51.2 38.9 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 4.4 5.0 4.9 44.0 37.2 30.4 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.5 10.0 82.5 59.8 49.1 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.3 12.3 79.6 55.3 48.7 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 11.0 83.9 59.6 48.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.2 10.9 12.5 80.1 53.7 47.8 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.1 9.2 81.7 58.7 49.1 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.2 10.6 78.2 58.4 48.6 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.9 8.5 11.2 83.3 58.1 47.0 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.3 11.9 87.8 59.0 50.2 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.7 9.6 77.1 56.1 46.4 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.7 3.3 4.8 46.5 36.0 30.6 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.0 10.6 91.8 61.4 50.0 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.9 6.7 7.0 59.2 47.8 36.9 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.6 16.8 13.0 85.7 57.8 50.6 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.1 12.2 11.0 91.5 62.1 49.3 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------