***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 13.3 20.5 14.8 184.2 82.8 58.9 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 13.6 19.5 14.5 182.3 82.7 60.4 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 13.9 19.4 14.3 168.7 80.7 59.5 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 17.2 29.5 18.6 207.2 85.5 61.2 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 12.7 20.8 18.5 197.6 84.6 61.6 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.3 18.2 24.9 202.8 85.2 62.3 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 15.2 25.3 15.4 198.5 84.7 61.2 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 21.2 28.7 19.9 167.5 80.2 58.7 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 10.9 17.1 18.0 190.5 83.7 60.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 12.8 17.6 20.5 176.4 81.7 60.3 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 12.2 19.1 17.2 188.4 83.4 58.6 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 12.2 16.1 15.6 166.5 80.2 56.3 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 10.5 15.0 18.0 177.2 81.9 59.6 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 20.0 25.7 18.0 156.8 78.7 59.8 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.9 17.0 17.5 217.0 86.5 57.5 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.0 18.6 17.2 181.5 82.5 58.7 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 16.1 23.3 14.1 179.1 82.1 59.4 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 14.3 17.3 20.9 150.8 77.6 59.7 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 16.2 22.8 14.1 173.7 81.5 59.8 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 20.7 24.6 23.0 144.1 76.3 59.5 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.4 18.8 15.4 187.2 83.3 59.8 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 16.6 21.9 13.9 161.7 79.5 58.0 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.0 17.7 14.2 164.7 80.1 59.2 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 15.4 18.9 17.6 151.8 77.8 59.0 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 13.4 20.3 17.0 178.1 81.9 60.4 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 9.2 14.1 15.0 191.8 84.0 60.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.6 20.3 16.7 182.3 82.5 59.2 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 9.2 15.7 18.6 208.4 85.6 59.0 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 24.9 28.4 20.8 143.0 76.1 58.6 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 13.9 20.5 14.7 183.6 82.8 60.4 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------