***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.1 24.8 12.0 154.5 78.3 47.4 4.8 9.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 21.2 13.3 147.4 77.0 48.1 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.3 21.9 12.5 149.3 77.3 49.2 4.4 8.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.1 22.4 14.8 150.9 77.7 49.0 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.7 20.6 14.5 157.0 78.7 50.0 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 15.9 16.5 133.0 74.3 50.5 3.4 7.0 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.7 19.4 12.9 134.5 74.5 47.7 4.6 8.8 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.3 31.4 13.8 156.4 78.5 52.9 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 4.7 25.1 14.5 157.1 78.7 49.8 4.6 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.2 21.4 14.9 153.0 77.9 52.3 5.2 9.4 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 4.3 21.0 12.4 174.0 81.4 52.8 4.5 8.1 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.4 20.4 11.4 167.5 80.5 51.4 4.6 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.5 19.1 13.0 143.2 76.2 49.7 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.8 24.4 14.8 123.3 71.9 49.0 5.3 11.2 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 18.2 13.7 160.0 79.3 48.2 2.8 6.2 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.2 16.1 12.7 157.5 78.7 51.4 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.6 18.5 13.8 138.2 75.3 48.9 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 23.6 15.8 131.7 73.5 51.4 5.6 10.9 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.8 21.9 13.0 149.6 77.4 48.4 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.9 25.5 17.4 130.9 73.2 52.2 6.8 12.5 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.7 29.4 13.1 159.8 79.2 48.8 4.6 9.9 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 21.6 13.6 140.4 75.7 48.7 4.4 9.0 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.2 19.5 12.2 136.7 74.8 47.8 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.1 24.0 14.1 128.8 73.0 49.8 4.4 9.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 5.0 23.8 13.7 144.3 76.5 47.9 4.9 9.8 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.4 21.5 11.8 164.3 80.0 50.3 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 26.2 13.2 146.2 76.8 47.4 4.4 9.6 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.4 17.2 14.7 157.1 78.8 49.5 3.3 6.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.7 31.5 15.6 126.3 72.3 51.0 8.4 15.7 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.2 20.2 12.8 148.0 77.1 48.0 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------