***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 60.7 71.3 44.8 140.0 75.4 63.8 24.4 38.6 56.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 54.9 58.4 47.3 130.3 72.7 60.1 24.6 36.5 50.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 60.3 67.0 45.6 134.1 73.9 62.8 28.3 41.6 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 56.1 81.1 49.7 133.7 73.7 62.9 30.8 47.7 68.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 44.5 61.4 49.6 131.5 73.1 62.3 25.1 37.6 52.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 54.0 58.7 59.0 130.3 73.0 61.4 24.4 36.3 50.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 45.1 61.7 47.8 133.7 73.8 60.8 25.2 37.5 52.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 95.7 101.3 51.6 129.1 72.5 61.5 45.3 65.2 88.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 56.5 63.0 50.7 137.0 74.8 63.9 27.5 39.4 53.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 63.7 68.4 55.0 130.8 73.0 62.5 29.1 42.9 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 41.8 56.7 43.0 130.5 72.8 61.4 23.9 35.2 49.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 45.5 58.9 39.7 125.2 71.1 59.1 26.2 38.6 53.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 44.3 53.9 43.8 116.8 67.8 56.1 25.9 37.9 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 59.2 78.4 56.8 121.0 69.6 60.9 34.5 51.9 72.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 34.8 53.5 45.8 138.4 75.0 61.5 16.9 27.9 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 41.3 52.7 42.0 121.1 69.5 57.3 21.2 33.3 48.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 45.5 57.7 45.9 122.4 70.1 57.6 25.4 37.8 52.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 57.3 74.7 60.8 123.8 70.7 61.9 34.5 49.9 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 60.9 64.4 46.4 127.7 71.9 60.1 28.2 41.2 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 68.4 85.3 67.0 123.1 70.6 61.2 45.0 61.1 79.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 61.4 70.8 46.1 138.7 75.1 64.6 25.5 39.6 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.9 59.7 45.6 115.3 67.6 56.0 27.8 41.6 57.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 45.6 58.8 46.0 123.1 70.3 60.0 27.6 39.8 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 56.0 75.3 54.2 125.5 71.3 62.2 32.1 48.1 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 49.5 67.3 49.8 130.7 72.9 62.4 30.7 43.6 58.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 38.7 52.2 39.7 124.8 70.9 59.0 19.6 31.5 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 48.7 71.4 49.8 136.5 74.5 62.8 27.0 41.4 59.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.4 52.1 47.8 133.1 73.5 60.6 17.5 28.7 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 106.6 110.3 62.3 123.4 70.6 62.2 55.6 77.1 101.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 56.5 62.4 47.3 135.2 74.2 61.6 25.5 37.8 52.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------