***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 13.5 14.1 18.1 1.8 78.8 73.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.8 17.2 1.4 74.4 69.8 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 15.5 15.9 17.7 1.3 72.8 68.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 11.2 12.2 15.5 2.0 85.3 80.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 12.6 13.1 16.0 1.5 77.4 72.8 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 11.9 13.0 14.0 2.5 92.1 87.7 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.2 17.5 1.7 78.6 73.1 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.8 7.4 13.3 1.4 77.7 73.3 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 13.5 13.8 16.0 1.5 76.3 72.4 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 13.4 13.9 14.2 1.5 78.1 73.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.5 15.6 1.3 75.1 71.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.8 14.4 1.4 76.4 72.1 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 12.9 13.3 14.5 1.6 80.8 77.2 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 14.2 14.6 15.5 1.5 78.8 75.2 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 14.7 15.4 17.8 2.1 86.5 82.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.7 15.2 1.7 81.9 77.9 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.4 16.9 1.6 77.4 72.1 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.9 13.5 1.5 78.5 74.5 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 13.5 13.7 17.1 1.2 71.1 67.3 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 8.2 8.7 11.8 1.5 79.4 74.9 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 13.3 13.8 17.2 1.6 78.8 74.1 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.4 17.0 1.4 75.0 70.2 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 45 55 100 13.1 13.2 17.0 1.0 68.7 65.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.9 15.6 1.4 77.6 73.6 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.3 17.5 1.9 79.9 74.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 12.8 13.5 13.9 1.9 85.2 80.9 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.2 15.1 17.8 2.1 82.0 76.4 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 12.7 13.5 16.2 2.1 87.0 82.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.3 12.6 1.3 75.2 71.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 13.8 14.2 17.6 1.4 73.4 68.9 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------