***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.4 16.2 1.2 69.2 64.3 10.3 11.3 12.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.5 15.7 1.1 67.9 63.6 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.7 14.7 16.2 1.0 67.0 63.0 12.6 13.7 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 10.8 11.3 13.9 1.5 75.5 69.4 8.2 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 11.3 11.3 14.1 1.0 67.5 63.7 9.0 10.1 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.6 11.0 12.1 1.4 76.0 70.5 8.5 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.6 15.9 1.1 68.0 63.3 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.5 11.6 0.9 67.3 63.8 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.4 14.1 0.9 65.8 62.2 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.3 12.4 0.9 67.2 63.6 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.6 13.5 0.8 64.4 61.4 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.1 12.6 0.9 65.6 62.6 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.1 12.3 0.9 66.4 63.3 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 12.9 12.9 13.8 0.9 67.3 63.2 11.0 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.5 15.7 1.4 75.5 69.5 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.7 13.1 1.0 68.1 64.6 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 12.9 13.0 15.5 1.1 69.2 64.5 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 11.1 11.6 0.9 66.6 63.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.5 15.8 1.0 66.7 62.9 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.3 9.9 0.9 67.0 63.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.2 15.4 1.1 68.7 64.3 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.1 15.6 1.1 69.1 64.5 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.0 15.8 0.9 66.2 62.6 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.4 13.7 0.9 66.4 62.8 10.5 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 12.4 12.5 15.3 1.2 69.5 64.9 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.4 12.0 1.1 69.2 65.7 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.0 13.2 15.8 1.2 69.7 64.9 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 11.0 11.4 14.3 1.5 75.7 69.8 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 10.4 10.2 10.9 0.8 64.9 62.2 8.0 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.8 16.0 1.0 67.0 62.8 10.8 11.8 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------