***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 15.6 0.3 56.6 55.0 11.0 11.6 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.5 15.0 0.1 52.5 51.6 10.8 11.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 13.9 13.8 15.6 0.1 52.0 51.2 13.1 13.7 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.8 13.2 0.6 65.0 61.6 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.6 10.4 13.4 0.0 50.1 49.7 9.8 10.4 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.2 10.3 11.7 0.8 72.5 68.2 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 15.2 0.2 55.1 53.8 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 5.5 11.2 0.2 56.3 55.1 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.5 13.4 0.0 49.3 49.1 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.4 11.9 0.2 55.0 53.9 10.8 11.3 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.1 10.8 12.9 -0.1 47.7 47.9 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.7 9.6 12.1 0.1 52.0 51.7 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.4 11.7 0.0 51.3 51.0 9.8 10.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.0 13.3 0.1 53.7 52.6 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.5 15.0 0.5 62.5 59.3 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.8 12.5 0.2 54.3 53.3 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.1 14.8 0.2 55.5 54.1 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.2 11.2 0.1 53.9 53.1 9.4 10.1 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.6 15.0 0.0 49.9 49.4 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 6.5 6.4 9.4 0.2 54.1 53.3 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.3 11.3 14.8 0.1 53.6 52.4 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.0 14.8 0.0 51.3 50.4 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.0 15.0 -0.1 48.0 47.7 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.4 13.2 0.1 51.4 51.0 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.8 11.8 14.6 0.2 54.5 53.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.8 11.4 0.4 60.5 58.6 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.2 15.1 0.4 58.2 56.3 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.6 13.7 0.6 65.9 62.2 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 9.3 9.2 10.5 0.1 52.5 51.9 8.5 9.1 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.1 11.9 15.3 0.1 51.4 50.7 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------