***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.9 26.5 0.1 51.2 50.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.0 25.7 -0.8 38.8 40.3 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.4 24.2 26.0 -0.7 40.8 41.8 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.9 24.4 1.0 64.1 60.4 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 24.0 25.3 24.9 -0.3 46.5 46.2 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.6 24.1 1.2 65.5 61.4 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.2 25.9 -0.4 44.4 44.8 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.3 13.5 22.9 -0.3 45.6 45.5 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.6 25.4 -0.5 43.3 43.8 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.5 23.6 -0.3 45.6 45.6 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.7 24.6 25.3 -0.6 42.3 42.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.3 24.4 -0.3 45.8 45.7 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.3 25.3 -0.4 44.8 44.8 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 23.1 23.9 24.4 -0.8 39.0 40.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.8 27.8 1.2 65.5 61.7 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 26.7 26.2 25.3 0.0 49.4 48.5 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.6 25.2 -0.6 41.6 42.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.4 22.4 -0.5 43.4 44.0 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 23.6 25.7 -1.0 37.0 38.9 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 18.6 19.7 20.8 -0.4 44.9 45.2 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 23.6 25.0 26.3 -0.2 47.5 47.2 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.0 25.2 -0.7 40.6 42.2 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 23.0 23.7 25.7 -1.0 37.4 39.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.9 24.6 -0.6 41.7 42.6 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.5 25.4 25.5 0.2 52.4 51.0 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.6 24.6 0.2 53.2 51.3 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.3 25.3 26.0 0.3 53.9 52.2 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 26.1 26.8 26.0 1.2 66.0 61.9 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.7 18.7 21.6 -0.7 41.1 42.2 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 23.1 24.0 25.9 -0.7 40.2 41.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------