***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.5 25.1 -0.3 44.3 44.1 22.9 23.9 24.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.2 24.6 -0.8 35.2 36.7 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.5 25.1 -0.6 38.5 39.2 23.2 24.2 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.6 23.2 0.5 59.0 56.1 16.0 17.1 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.0 23.5 -0.6 39.0 40.2 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 24.0 23.9 22.1 0.2 53.3 52.2 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.2 23.2 24.8 -0.5 40.9 41.5 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.6 12.9 22.0 -0.4 42.0 42.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.5 23.9 -0.8 36.0 37.4 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.6 22.6 -0.4 42.8 43.2 22.9 24.0 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 23.3 23.6 23.7 -0.9 34.4 36.4 23.5 24.4 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.1 23.2 -0.6 39.1 40.4 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 23.5 23.7 23.1 -1.0 32.0 34.6 23.8 24.8 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.5 23.4 23.4 -0.7 37.6 38.8 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.8 25.3 0.1 52.7 51.4 23.7 24.6 25.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.7 23.5 -0.6 39.5 40.9 24.3 25.3 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.2 22.7 24.4 -0.5 40.0 40.9 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.5 22.9 21.9 -0.3 44.7 44.7 22.2 23.2 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 22.5 23.0 24.7 -0.9 34.4 35.9 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.7 18.9 19.8 -0.4 42.5 43.1 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.7 23.8 24.7 -0.6 39.4 40.1 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.4 24.4 -0.5 40.4 41.2 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.8 23.2 24.9 -0.8 35.9 37.1 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.2 23.3 23.6 -0.6 40.0 40.7 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.4 23.7 23.7 -0.4 42.7 42.9 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.2 23.1 -0.3 44.2 45.0 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 24.3 23.8 24.4 -0.2 46.0 45.5 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 25.1 25.1 24.2 0.4 57.4 55.2 23.7 24.7 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 18.2 21.0 -0.5 41.1 41.7 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.1 24.8 -0.8 36.3 37.5 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------