***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.9 19.5 18.7 163.7 79.7 66.2 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 12.6 21.6 20.6 202.1 85.3 68.3 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.4 21.5 17.9 162.9 79.7 64.8 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 20.2 25.5 15.3 145.1 76.6 61.3 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 15.7 23.5 17.7 175.5 81.3 65.6 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 18.6 21.6 14.6 138.4 75.2 62.8 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 13.2 21.3 20.7 205.6 85.7 69.3 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 29.0 38.1 19.0 152.7 78.0 64.3 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 14.9 18.9 16.3 152.0 77.9 63.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 18.9 24.9 19.3 152.2 77.9 65.0 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.3 21.4 16.2 157.7 78.8 63.5 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.3 23.9 14.7 147.9 77.1 62.1 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 17.3 20.9 14.2 144.9 76.7 61.4 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.0 19.2 21.3 145.3 76.5 61.9 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.3 15.3 12.8 151.4 77.8 55.3 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.9 21.9 14.6 150.9 77.8 62.5 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 15.2 27.9 23.4 225.4 87.9 72.4 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 18.7 24.0 20.1 144.2 76.2 64.0 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 15.2 24.4 20.3 188.5 83.5 66.3 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.0 23.6 19.6 134.9 74.3 63.2 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 14.7 18.4 16.1 151.9 77.9 63.6 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.1 25.8 22.2 197.3 84.8 69.2 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.7 17.7 19.0 164.6 80.0 63.8 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 10.7 22.1 18.6 145.6 76.6 62.6 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 16.6 24.3 20.2 185.7 82.9 68.4 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 14.6 10.8 120.8 72.0 58.6 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 15.2 23.0 20.5 184.2 82.7 68.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 17.0 14.1 144.0 76.6 58.4 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 26.6 33.6 20.4 143.3 76.1 64.2 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.3 26.8 20.7 199.5 84.8 67.8 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------