***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.4 86.7 60.8 46.9 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.8 9.8 94.1 63.4 49.8 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.8 8.8 77.5 56.9 44.1 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.5 9.6 80.3 59.3 44.3 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.7 6.7 8.1 71.0 55.3 41.8 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.4 8.6 63.1 50.3 37.7 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.1 9.5 97.5 64.3 49.2 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 9.4 8.3 62.8 49.9 37.0 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.0 8.2 70.8 55.0 43.9 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.6 8.5 63.9 51.0 40.3 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.4 7.5 64.7 51.1 39.7 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.2 6.2 7.0 62.2 49.9 36.3 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.5 4.8 6.9 59.2 50.2 38.8 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.7 11.0 78.8 57.3 43.2 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.6 4.5 7.1 64.7 54.4 37.7 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.6 7.5 65.4 52.2 39.4 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.5 12.1 10.5 99.4 65.6 50.9 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.2 10.0 70.1 52.8 41.2 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.2 9.8 89.5 61.7 48.2 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.6 11.8 74.6 54.4 40.8 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.9 8.8 76.6 57.7 44.8 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 4.1 14.2 12.8 107.3 67.5 50.8 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.3 8.0 9.4 81.9 59.0 45.5 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 6.9 9.3 71.1 53.8 41.3 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.6 77.3 57.8 43.9 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.7 7.7 68.3 52.1 36.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 8.8 9.6 81.1 58.7 45.1 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 5.2 8.0 70.4 56.3 39.3 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.8 13.3 11.3 73.6 53.4 40.8 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.2 8.9 85.2 60.2 46.6 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------