***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 69.7 94.9 51.8 192.5 85.6 77.8 24.4 38.6 56.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 60.5 85.6 51.6 207.1 87.8 78.8 24.6 36.5 50.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 66.3 86.6 50.1 185.6 84.8 76.3 28.3 41.6 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 79.4 103.8 49.0 180.2 83.3 73.8 30.8 47.7 68.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 23 77 100 61.5 80.6 48.6 186.1 84.2 74.8 25.1 37.6 52.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 56.0 71.3 48.4 165.9 81.5 70.6 24.4 36.3 50.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 63.6 90.2 51.1 211.5 88.6 79.3 25.2 37.5 52.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 99.6 126.0 51.5 168.3 82.3 72.6 45.3 65.2 88.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 60.7 76.3 49.0 178.9 83.5 74.6 27.5 39.4 53.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 67.4 86.6 54.5 173.8 83.2 74.3 29.1 42.9 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 55.0 69.8 44.1 169.3 81.7 71.8 23.9 35.2 49.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 58.1 73.2 40.9 163.0 80.6 70.0 26.2 38.6 53.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 56.2 71.5 42.6 166.2 80.9 69.3 25.9 37.9 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 82.3 109.3 61.7 174.6 83.8 73.8 34.5 51.9 72.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 48.1 64.0 40.5 171.4 81.4 71.3 16.9 27.9 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 54.0 71.3 43.0 168.4 81.4 70.3 21.2 33.3 48.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 64.4 92.5 53.7 213.8 88.9 80.6 25.4 37.8 52.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 76.4 101.7 60.6 175.2 84.5 74.3 34.5 49.9 68.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 66.7 92.1 52.0 199.5 86.8 77.7 28.2 41.2 57.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 85.1 111.7 63.5 173.0 84.7 73.5 45.0 61.1 79.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 67.6 88.8 48.7 181.4 83.8 75.6 25.5 39.6 57.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 67.4 98.6 57.6 208.4 88.2 78.8 27.8 41.6 57.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 62.9 80.9 51.4 185.1 84.8 75.8 27.6 39.8 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 75.4 101.8 56.2 176.6 83.9 74.2 32.1 48.1 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 68.0 91.0 55.5 198.0 86.2 78.3 30.7 43.6 58.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 53.1 68.2 39.1 163.6 80.9 68.6 19.6 31.5 46.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 70.8 98.3 55.2 198.1 86.7 78.5 27.0 41.4 59.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 48.9 65.6 44.1 172.6 81.9 71.4 17.5 28.7 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 112.1 147.4 62.7 173.7 84.8 74.1 55.6 77.1 101.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 62.6 87.4 51.8 205.1 87.5 78.1 25.5 37.8 52.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------