***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.3 16.3 1.1 70.0 66.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.3 16.0 1.0 69.0 66.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.6 15.5 16.1 1.0 68.3 65.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.2 13.5 0.5 60.2 59.6 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.3 11.8 13.9 0.6 61.6 60.8 10.1 11.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.7 12.0 0.6 61.6 60.8 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.1 15.8 0.7 64.1 62.7 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 6.7 6.4 12.1 0.8 65.2 63.8 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 13.3 12.9 14.6 0.7 64.7 63.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 13.1 12.9 13.0 0.9 67.9 66.1 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.3 13.5 0.6 62.1 61.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 11.0 10.8 12.8 0.6 63.0 61.8 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.6 12.4 0.4 57.6 57.2 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.5 14.3 0.7 64.2 62.7 11.9 12.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.4 14.9 0.3 56.4 56.2 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.8 12.9 0.2 55.2 55.1 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 13.8 13.8 15.5 1.1 70.9 68.4 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 12.0 11.9 12.0 0.9 68.8 66.8 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.4 16.0 1.1 69.8 66.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 7.9 7.7 10.1 0.8 67.2 65.6 6.1 6.9 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 13.0 12.7 15.7 0.8 66.3 64.2 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 12.9 12.8 15.6 0.9 67.7 65.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 13.0 12.9 15.9 1.0 69.3 66.1 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.0 14.1 0.8 66.7 64.6 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 13.5 13.6 15.3 1.2 73.2 69.1 11.3 12.2 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 11.5 11.5 11.9 0.2 54.3 54.2 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.1 15.6 1.1 71.0 67.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 11.2 11.1 13.8 0.1 52.0 52.4 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.6 11.4 0.8 67.8 66.0 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.6 16.2 0.9 66.3 64.1 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------