***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 10.2 10.9 14.1 -0.6 38.8 41.3 10.5 11.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.8 14.0 -0.5 39.9 42.2 10.3 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 12.4 13.1 13.9 -0.6 38.2 40.6 12.7 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 8.1 8.6 11.8 -0.7 35.8 39.0 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.5 11.9 -0.5 39.5 41.7 9.0 10.2 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.3 10.8 -0.2 46.5 46.9 8.4 9.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.5 11.1 14.0 -0.6 39.5 41.9 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.0 10.6 -0.3 44.2 45.1 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.0 11.1 12.2 -0.5 40.0 42.1 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.7 10.8 10.9 -0.3 42.5 43.9 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.4 11.7 -0.3 43.5 44.7 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.9 11.4 -0.3 42.8 44.0 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.7 10.9 -0.3 43.3 44.3 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.5 12.4 -0.4 41.1 42.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 10.8 11.2 12.3 -0.8 33.2 36.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.4 11.1 11.5 -0.4 42.2 43.5 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.8 13.8 -0.3 44.6 45.9 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 9.6 10.3 -0.3 42.9 44.2 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.1 14.0 -0.5 39.9 42.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.9 9.1 -0.2 45.1 45.9 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.4 13.2 -0.6 38.3 40.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.9 10.7 13.7 -0.4 42.7 44.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.4 13.7 -0.5 39.1 41.2 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.9 12.1 -0.4 40.6 42.4 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.0 10.7 12.5 -0.5 40.3 42.6 10.2 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.0 11.2 -0.4 41.9 42.9 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.0 13.3 -0.5 40.9 42.9 10.3 11.7 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 8.5 8.9 12.1 -0.7 34.5 37.6 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 8.9 9.9 -0.3 44.1 45.2 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 10.5 11.2 14.1 -0.6 38.5 41.0 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------