***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 10.0 10.1 12.7 -1.1 27.6 33.2 10.4 11.5 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 9.4 9.5 12.6 -1.1 28.0 33.1 9.9 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 11.8 11.9 12.5 -1.1 28.3 33.6 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.4 7.5 10.5 -1.0 29.8 34.9 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.0 10.5 -0.9 31.1 36.0 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.9 9.5 -0.4 40.5 43.7 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 10.0 10.1 12.6 -1.1 27.6 32.9 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.7 4.1 9.2 -0.7 34.5 38.6 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.2 10.8 -0.9 30.2 35.2 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.1 9.5 -0.8 32.9 37.4 10.1 11.0 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.6 9.9 10.3 -0.7 35.2 39.3 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.2 8.5 9.9 -0.8 33.3 37.7 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.7 9.2 9.6 -0.7 35.3 39.6 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.4 10.6 10.9 -0.9 31.3 36.0 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 10.6 10.7 11.1 -1.0 29.1 34.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.2 10.5 10.1 -0.7 35.3 39.6 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.5 12.4 -0.9 31.2 35.4 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 8.9 8.9 -0.7 33.2 37.6 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 9.8 10.0 12.6 -1.1 28.4 33.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.3 7.8 -0.6 36.7 40.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 9.5 9.6 11.8 -1.1 28.4 33.6 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.4 12.3 -1.0 29.2 34.2 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 9.2 9.3 12.3 -1.0 29.1 34.1 9.6 10.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.0 10.7 -0.9 31.6 36.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.2 11.1 -0.9 31.0 35.8 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 9.1 9.3 9.8 -0.8 33.4 38.2 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 9.6 9.9 11.9 -1.0 30.1 35.3 10.1 11.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.7 8.8 10.9 -1.0 30.2 35.0 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.4 7.9 8.5 -0.7 34.6 38.8 7.8 8.9 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 10.0 10.0 12.7 -1.2 27.1 32.6 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------