***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9.6 9.7 11.3 -1.2 30.2 35.1 9.8 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 9.4 9.7 11.4 -1.0 32.8 36.8 9.7 10.8 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 11.7 11.8 11.1 -1.2 29.4 34.3 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.0 6.8 9.0 -1.2 25.5 32.6 7.3 8.5 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.4 8.3 9.0 -1.1 27.5 34.1 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.5 7.8 7.9 -0.8 32.7 39.2 7.8 8.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 9.6 10.0 11.4 -1.0 32.9 37.0 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 3.5 7.6 -1.2 27.4 34.6 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.3 9.3 9.3 -1.1 28.4 34.4 9.6 10.6 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.3 9.3 8.0 -1.1 28.4 34.9 9.5 10.4 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 8.7 8.6 8.8 -1.1 28.3 35.0 8.9 9.8 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.8 7.6 8.4 -1.2 26.6 34.1 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 8.2 8.3 8.0 -1.0 28.7 35.8 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 9.9 10.1 9.5 -1.0 30.9 36.0 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 9.4 9.3 9.5 -1.3 24.0 31.4 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 9.7 9.7 8.6 -1.0 28.1 35.0 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.1 11.2 -0.7 36.8 40.1 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.1 7.4 -1.1 28.8 35.0 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.8 11.3 -1.0 32.1 36.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.6 4.6 6.3 -1.1 28.6 35.6 4.8 5.6 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 8.9 9.0 10.3 -1.2 27.8 33.6 9.3 10.3 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.1 11.0 -0.8 34.3 38.2 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.0 9.2 10.9 -1.0 30.8 35.4 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 9.1 9.2 9.3 -1.1 29.4 34.8 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 9.6 9.7 9.7 -1.1 29.4 35.1 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.4 -1.1 27.4 35.0 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.5 -1.1 31.1 36.2 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 7.7 7.5 9.3 -1.3 24.5 31.7 8.1 9.2 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.2 7.2 7.0 -1.1 28.4 35.0 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 9.6 9.9 11.5 -1.1 31.3 35.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------