***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.0 13.6 -0.5 35.6 38.4 10.9 11.5 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 10.5 10.8 13.5 -0.4 37.1 38.8 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.4 -0.5 34.6 37.0 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.2 11.2 -0.6 29.7 34.0 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 9.5 9.7 11.3 -0.5 32.5 36.1 9.7 10.3 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.2 10.1 -0.2 42.6 44.4 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.1 13.5 -0.5 35.0 37.1 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 4.8 9.9 -0.3 37.6 39.7 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 10.8 10.9 11.7 -0.5 33.7 36.7 10.9 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.3 -0.3 37.6 39.7 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 10.1 10.3 11.1 -0.4 36.5 39.3 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.0 10.6 -0.4 35.3 38.1 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.2 -0.4 35.1 38.4 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.3 11.8 -0.4 35.9 38.1 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 11.2 11.2 11.9 -0.7 27.4 31.7 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 10.9 11.1 10.8 -0.5 33.5 37.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.1 11.6 13.2 -0.2 43.1 43.7 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.5 9.7 -0.3 38.1 40.2 9.3 10.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.1 13.5 -0.4 37.4 39.0 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.8 8.3 -0.3 39.3 41.5 5.6 6.2 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 10.4 10.5 12.7 -0.5 32.5 35.8 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.2 10.5 13.1 -0.3 38.8 40.2 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 10.1 10.5 13.2 -0.4 36.6 38.4 10.3 11.0 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 10.5 10.8 11.6 -0.4 36.2 38.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.1 12.2 -0.3 38.7 41.3 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.3 -0.5 32.5 36.6 9.9 10.4 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.2 12.9 -0.4 38.4 40.9 11.0 11.7 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 9.2 9.2 11.5 -0.7 26.5 30.9 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 8.2 8.6 9.2 -0.3 38.4 40.5 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.2 13.6 -0.5 34.5 36.8 11.1 11.8 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------