***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.2 23.5 24.2 -0.9 36.6 39.1 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.5 23.8 24.2 -0.9 38.1 40.4 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.5 23.4 24.0 -1.3 32.3 35.5 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.2 16.2 21.9 -1.4 31.6 33.7 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.0 23.9 22.6 -1.3 32.4 35.0 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.8 23.5 21.0 -0.8 40.0 41.3 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 25.1 23.7 24.3 -0.7 40.6 42.5 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.2 20.6 -1.5 31.1 33.7 12.4 13.7 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.3 23.4 23.2 -1.4 31.6 34.5 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.2 21.4 -1.5 31.0 33.9 23.3 24.7 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 23.5 23.7 22.3 -1.3 33.3 35.8 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 22.7 23.2 21.8 -1.3 33.3 35.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 26.1 24.9 22.5 -0.7 41.4 43.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 22.7 22.7 22.1 -1.8 27.8 31.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 24.0 24.1 23.6 -1.4 31.5 33.5 24.2 25.5 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.0 22.5 -1.1 36.4 38.4 24.7 26.0 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.8 23.5 23.9 -0.6 41.5 43.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 22.1 22.1 20.3 -1.7 29.0 32.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.3 23.3 24.1 -1.1 35.4 38.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 18.2 18.3 18.5 -1.6 29.5 32.3 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.6 23.5 23.8 -1.3 32.0 35.0 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 25.4 23.5 23.6 -1.0 36.6 39.0 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.1 23.7 -1.3 32.3 35.6 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 22.6 22.6 22.0 -1.6 28.9 32.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.0 23.1 -0.8 38.2 40.3 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.4 22.0 -0.9 38.6 40.5 24.0 25.2 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.1 23.9 -0.6 41.5 43.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 24.0 24.0 22.6 -1.5 30.1 32.1 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 17.4 17.5 19.5 -1.7 28.9 32.1 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.3 23.4 24.3 -1.0 36.2 38.8 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------