***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 22.9 23.4 23.6 -1.2 34.8 37.8 23.2 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.4 23.7 23.7 -1.0 36.7 39.3 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 23.1 23.5 23.7 -1.1 35.6 38.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 15.5 16.0 22.2 -1.3 32.2 35.7 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.3 23.8 22.4 -1.2 35.0 38.2 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.4 21.3 -0.6 42.7 43.9 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.3 23.6 -1.0 36.7 39.2 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.8 12.6 21.2 -0.9 39.2 41.6 12.1 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 23.1 23.6 22.7 -1.1 35.7 38.8 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.4 21.6 -1.0 37.9 40.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.2 23.9 22.2 -1.0 37.6 40.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.3 23.1 22.1 -0.9 38.2 40.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.7 24.1 21.8 -0.9 38.4 40.9 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.0 22.5 -0.7 40.9 43.3 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 23.5 23.7 22.5 -1.5 30.3 34.1 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.9 24.6 22.1 -1.0 37.4 40.1 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 22.2 22.9 23.4 -0.9 38.1 40.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.9 22.9 21.1 -0.8 40.3 42.5 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 23.5 23.8 -1.0 37.3 40.0 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.4 19.1 19.3 -0.6 42.0 43.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 23.2 23.7 23.2 -1.2 33.9 37.3 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.6 23.3 -0.9 38.3 40.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 23.0 23.7 23.7 -0.9 38.6 41.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.5 22.4 -0.8 39.2 41.7 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.5 22.3 -1.1 35.2 38.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.8 21.8 -1.0 37.4 40.1 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.6 23.0 -1.0 36.6 39.2 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 23.5 23.9 22.4 -1.4 31.8 35.4 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.7 18.4 20.3 -0.6 42.0 43.9 17.6 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.3 23.5 23.8 -1.1 35.9 38.7 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------