***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 20.7 20.6 21.7 -1.9 26.8 33.7 21.2 22.8 24.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 21.1 20.9 21.7 -1.8 27.4 33.9 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 21.2 21.2 21.9 -1.8 27.7 34.5 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.4 14.4 20.4 -1.8 28.2 34.2 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.1 20.5 -1.6 30.1 36.1 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.4 19.5 -0.9 39.1 43.0 21.8 23.3 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 20.8 20.6 21.6 -1.8 26.8 33.4 21.2 22.9 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.8 19.5 -1.3 34.5 39.5 11.6 13.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 21.4 21.6 20.8 -1.6 30.2 36.3 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 21.1 21.6 19.9 -1.4 32.5 38.2 21.7 23.4 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 21.8 22.3 20.4 -1.4 32.8 38.2 22.3 23.9 25.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 21.2 21.7 20.4 -1.3 33.8 38.8 21.6 23.3 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.4 23.0 20.0 -1.3 34.8 39.6 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.4 20.6 -1.5 30.9 37.2 21.6 23.4 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 22.2 22.1 20.7 -1.8 27.5 33.3 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.7 23.3 20.3 -1.4 33.4 38.5 23.2 24.8 26.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 20.2 20.2 21.4 -1.7 28.0 34.0 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 20.3 21.0 19.3 -1.3 33.7 39.2 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 20.8 20.8 21.9 -1.8 28.1 34.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 16.9 17.8 17.6 -1.0 37.2 41.6 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 21.6 21.5 21.4 -1.8 28.1 34.7 22.0 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 20.6 20.8 21.4 -1.7 28.5 34.6 21.3 23.0 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 20.9 21.1 21.8 -1.7 29.1 35.7 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 20.9 21.3 20.6 -1.5 31.0 37.3 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 21.3 21.2 20.4 -1.8 28.0 34.6 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.8 20.1 -1.3 35.0 39.5 22.6 24.2 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.2 21.0 21.0 -1.8 27.7 34.6 21.6 23.1 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 22.1 22.2 20.7 -1.7 28.8 34.5 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 15.9 16.8 18.5 -1.2 35.3 40.4 16.5 18.2 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 21.0 20.7 21.9 -1.9 27.0 33.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------