***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 20.5 21.0 20.6 -1.5 31.1 36.1 21.2 22.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 21.0 21.5 20.7 -1.4 32.8 36.9 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 21.1 21.6 20.7 -1.5 32.0 37.0 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 13.9 14.3 19.0 -1.6 30.6 35.8 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 21.4 21.9 19.2 -1.5 32.0 37.5 22.0 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.7 21.5 18.1 -1.0 36.6 41.8 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 20.6 21.1 20.6 -1.5 32.2 36.3 21.2 22.7 24.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.4 11.1 18.1 -1.3 34.7 40.6 11.0 12.5 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 21.1 21.6 19.6 -1.5 32.3 37.9 21.7 23.3 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.3 18.6 -1.4 33.6 39.4 21.2 22.9 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 21.2 21.8 19.0 -1.4 33.5 39.1 21.7 23.4 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.4 21.0 18.9 -1.3 34.0 39.9 20.9 22.6 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.5 22.0 18.6 -1.3 33.7 39.7 21.9 23.6 25.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 20.7 21.7 19.5 -1.3 35.3 40.4 21.4 23.2 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 21.1 21.5 19.3 -1.6 29.6 34.6 21.8 23.3 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 22.1 22.6 18.9 -1.4 33.3 39.0 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 20.3 21.0 20.5 -1.3 34.1 37.7 20.9 22.3 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 19.9 20.7 18.0 -1.3 34.7 40.5 20.5 22.2 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 20.7 21.3 20.8 -1.4 33.4 37.7 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.0 17.0 16.3 -1.1 36.4 42.3 16.6 18.3 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 21.1 21.6 20.2 -1.5 31.5 36.9 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.6 20.5 -1.3 34.5 38.4 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.5 20.7 -1.3 34.1 38.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 20.7 21.4 19.4 -1.4 34.0 39.5 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 20.8 21.3 19.2 -1.4 31.7 36.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 21.1 21.6 18.7 -1.3 33.0 39.6 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 20.7 21.3 19.9 -1.4 31.9 36.6 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 21.2 21.6 19.2 -1.6 30.4 35.7 21.9 23.5 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.1 17.2 -1.2 35.6 41.4 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 20.8 21.3 20.8 -1.5 32.0 36.4 21.4 22.8 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------