***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 22.2 22.1 22.5 -1.4 23.5 28.4 22.8 23.7 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.5 22.6 22.6 -1.3 26.1 30.3 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 22.6 22.5 22.6 -1.4 22.9 28.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 15.4 15.1 20.9 -1.5 21.5 26.7 15.9 17.0 18.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 23.1 22.9 21.2 -1.4 23.3 28.6 23.6 24.6 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 22.4 22.6 20.0 -0.8 33.7 38.1 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.3 22.5 -1.3 26.5 30.4 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.1 11.9 19.8 -1.2 26.4 31.5 12.3 13.2 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 22.8 22.5 21.6 -1.4 23.2 28.4 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.5 22.2 20.4 -1.3 24.8 29.9 22.8 23.9 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 23.1 22.9 21.0 -1.3 25.8 31.0 23.4 24.3 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 22.3 22.2 20.8 -1.2 26.5 31.8 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 23.4 23.5 20.7 -1.1 29.9 35.0 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 22.5 22.4 21.2 -1.3 24.3 29.6 23.0 24.0 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 23.0 22.8 21.5 -1.5 20.9 26.1 23.6 24.5 25.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 24.0 23.8 20.9 -1.2 27.2 32.4 24.2 25.2 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.0 22.3 -1.1 28.4 32.0 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.8 21.6 19.7 -1.3 25.2 30.4 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 22.3 22.3 22.6 -1.3 25.7 30.2 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 18.1 18.0 17.9 -1.1 27.8 33.1 18.3 19.2 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 22.8 22.5 22.1 -1.5 21.7 27.1 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 22.3 22.4 22.2 -1.2 27.0 31.0 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 22.5 22.4 22.5 -1.3 25.2 30.0 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 22.4 22.2 21.1 -1.3 23.8 29.0 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 22.6 22.5 21.3 -1.3 24.4 29.4 23.0 24.0 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 23.1 23.1 20.7 -1.1 28.4 33.8 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 22.5 22.5 21.9 -1.2 26.1 30.7 22.9 23.9 24.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 23.1 22.8 21.2 -1.6 21.3 26.6 23.6 24.6 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.2 18.9 -1.2 26.4 31.7 17.6 18.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 22.3 22.3 22.7 -1.4 24.8 29.3 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------