***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 11.3 18.6 24.2 200.4 85.0 64.2 2.6 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.9 21.1 26.8 222.0 88.0 68.2 2.0 4.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 12.3 26.2 31.1 257.5 91.3 71.6 2.8 5.8 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 20.0 42.4 31.4 263.8 91.2 67.1 4.8 9.6 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 14.8 33.3 31.5 268.8 92.1 72.7 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 20.3 32.4 27.5 203.4 85.2 67.5 3.5 8.1 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.9 18.1 21.9 184.6 83.5 62.5 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 33.9 82.6 40.8 323.6 95.3 81.8 7.4 14.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 14.3 28.5 30.9 260.5 91.8 74.3 3.9 7.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 18.7 42.9 39.0 293.5 93.8 79.4 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 16.3 37.3 35.6 317.8 94.5 77.0 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 21.3 51.4 34.7 325.1 94.8 79.8 4.3 8.8 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 17.6 32.0 29.7 247.6 89.8 74.7 4.3 8.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 17.8 37.3 38.6 264.8 91.7 78.5 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 11.5 32.5 31.8 296.4 93.5 61.2 2.0 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 17.8 36.7 30.8 272.6 91.7 74.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.7 22.0 23.5 187.9 83.9 64.6 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 21.0 46.5 40.7 276.2 93.1 81.3 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 15.0 32.3 30.6 247.0 90.4 71.4 2.9 6.4 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 24.4 52.7 42.0 277.6 93.3 84.4 4.7 9.7 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 12.8 25.2 29.1 248.6 90.2 71.2 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 16.6 29.5 29.0 220.9 88.2 69.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 12.9 28.3 34.2 265.9 91.7 74.0 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 18.3 41.5 37.7 274.2 92.6 78.1 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 14.1 20.6 23.2 175.7 81.9 60.9 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 14.8 30.9 28.9 283.4 92.4 77.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 12.0 16.4 21.9 165.8 79.8 59.9 2.6 5.5 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 13.3 30.0 32.4 290.4 93.0 67.1 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 30.8 64.9 41.6 271.6 92.8 82.4 6.5 13.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 13.6 26.2 27.1 227.4 88.6 68.2 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------