***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.3 21.8 12.7 140.2 75.8 50.1 4.0 8.5 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.9 11.0 107.5 68.0 49.1 4.3 8.4 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.3 17.9 12.0 129.2 73.3 52.7 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.7 20.3 12.8 133.2 74.3 49.1 3.2 7.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.3 20.1 15.3 156.9 78.7 54.5 3.0 6.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.6 14.0 19.1 138.0 75.4 50.0 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.0 15.4 11.2 105.0 67.5 47.2 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 24.1 15.1 132.9 73.8 53.0 4.4 9.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.2 20.9 17.0 171.2 81.2 57.2 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.0 19.2 17.2 147.1 76.7 55.6 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.1 17.5 14.2 152.8 78.0 52.3 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.0 16.0 12.6 144.6 76.3 52.4 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.4 14.2 14.6 132.8 74.0 51.0 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 22.1 24.2 15.7 130.6 73.4 57.2 4.0 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.2 13.3 12.2 144.6 76.6 48.4 2.0 4.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.7 15.9 14.5 145.2 76.5 51.6 2.5 5.8 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.4 15.1 11.2 101.4 66.4 48.0 3.8 8.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 17.5 19.0 17.8 131.6 73.3 56.7 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 5.1 17.3 11.2 112.9 69.4 50.2 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.8 19.6 18.3 112.6 68.5 54.9 5.0 10.2 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.2 22.0 13.8 154.8 78.4 51.2 4.3 8.6 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.3 18.2 12.0 112.0 68.9 49.7 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 16.0 11.7 119.0 70.9 52.0 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.7 21.2 15.8 136.8 74.7 57.4 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 21.0 14.6 138.4 75.4 52.2 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.3 12.5 11.6 127.2 73.0 50.4 1.9 4.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 4.2 20.1 14.3 135.3 74.8 51.0 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 12.8 13.4 141.6 76.0 48.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 26.8 17.6 120.1 70.3 54.9 6.9 13.6 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.6 15.3 11.2 112.6 69.3 48.3 4.5 8.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------