***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.6 14.5 11.2 112.1 68.9 44.6 3.9 7.7 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 14.2 12.1 119.6 70.5 47.2 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.1 15.0 11.2 113.3 68.9 47.5 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.1 15.9 12.1 114.3 69.5 45.2 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.3 12.3 11.3 107.1 67.5 46.0 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.3 11.0 13.4 108.9 67.9 46.6 3.4 6.3 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.1 14.6 12.3 121.4 71.0 48.4 4.2 7.8 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 19.6 12.2 106.3 66.3 47.2 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.9 14.0 11.3 104.0 66.5 46.9 3.8 7.9 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 13.9 12.8 106.5 66.7 48.4 4.9 8.6 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.0 10.2 110.4 68.0 45.4 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.8 9.9 109.0 67.6 45.9 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.4 12.2 11.7 112.9 69.1 46.6 3.7 6.8 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.1 19.6 14.1 115.0 68.9 48.5 4.7 10.0 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.3 13.1 12.1 127.5 72.8 43.0 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.0 11.2 11.2 117.4 70.2 47.1 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.1 13.8 12.1 120.3 70.7 47.7 4.3 7.6 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 17.5 15.2 113.0 68.2 51.1 4.5 9.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 14.1 11.5 116.7 69.6 46.5 3.7 7.4 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 18.0 16.5 105.0 65.2 47.9 5.5 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.3 15.1 10.4 107.1 67.3 44.8 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.5 14.0 12.2 117.1 69.9 46.0 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 4.3 14.4 11.2 115.6 69.1 46.5 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.7 18.4 13.6 112.9 68.4 49.7 4.2 9.3 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.8 15.0 13.7 115.9 69.9 46.7 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.4 12.3 10.3 116.9 70.1 45.5 3.8 6.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.8 16.9 13.5 113.4 69.3 46.4 3.9 8.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.8 12.6 11.7 117.5 70.4 45.0 2.8 6.0 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 26.2 15.9 112.9 68.1 50.1 7.5 14.5 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.4 13.7 11.9 118.3 70.2 47.0 3.4 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------