***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 2.7 12.1 10.0 102.4 66.9 41.2 3.1 6.5 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.3 9.9 9.3 86.8 62.5 40.3 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.6 11.1 9.5 91.3 64.2 42.4 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 15.0 11.5 100.4 67.1 42.9 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.7 11.0 11.5 103.5 67.6 44.0 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.4 11.3 12.9 98.0 66.9 44.6 3.6 6.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 2.7 9.6 9.5 91.2 63.4 39.7 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 18.5 11.2 98.7 66.2 45.5 6.1 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.5 11.3 104.1 67.9 45.1 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.4 14.3 12.0 102.9 67.4 46.7 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.7 9.9 10.1 100.8 66.9 43.3 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.1 10.6 9.6 99.5 66.6 43.4 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.0 12.3 11.2 101.0 67.6 43.6 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.6 13.9 11.1 83.6 61.6 45.5 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.9 10.2 9.9 91.6 65.3 41.4 2.9 6.0 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.8 10.4 10.5 99.0 66.9 43.4 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.5 8.6 83.2 60.4 37.7 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.6 12.9 95.7 65.1 48.0 4.8 9.4 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.1 9.9 9.2 85.6 62.3 41.1 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 15.4 13.4 85.1 61.9 46.2 4.9 10.0 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.3 10.0 99.0 66.5 42.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.8 8.2 79.1 58.9 39.0 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.5 10.7 9.2 84.7 62.0 42.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.9 11.2 89.6 63.7 46.2 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.5 11.7 11.2 98.3 66.2 42.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.9 10.8 9.5 92.1 65.6 41.0 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.2 11.7 10.8 99.0 66.2 42.2 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.9 9.4 10.7 95.4 66.2 42.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.4 21.0 13.2 89.3 63.3 47.1 6.7 13.3 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.1 8.2 9.6 90.4 63.7 41.0 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------