***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 63.4 71.1 58.1 142.4 76.5 63.0 23.5 37.4 55.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 54.8 61.3 59.3 137.3 75.4 62.2 24.2 35.8 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 60.6 73.9 63.8 153.2 80.1 67.2 26.7 39.3 54.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 73.7 92.3 67.8 155.7 79.9 64.6 31.8 48.0 67.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 57.3 75.1 69.6 161.5 81.6 68.4 24.2 37.0 52.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 56.9 63.3 72.9 138.1 75.4 62.2 25.8 37.7 52.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 44.6 59.1 55.0 127.4 71.9 59.4 25.1 37.3 52.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 101.6 135.8 79.2 169.9 84.9 75.0 44.0 64.7 89.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 58.1 74.2 70.5 162.0 82.3 70.0 26.4 38.3 52.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 66.4 88.6 80.9 166.6 84.3 73.5 30.1 43.5 59.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 54.7 74.3 70.1 176.3 84.8 72.1 25.3 36.4 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 61.7 82.2 66.9 174.9 85.0 73.8 25.5 38.0 52.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 58.2 69.0 67.2 151.4 79.0 67.4 25.2 37.6 52.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 80.7 106.7 79.5 152.6 82.0 71.0 36.4 53.7 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 50.0 67.8 65.9 167.4 82.4 63.3 18.0 29.5 43.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 54.5 70.5 67.0 162.0 81.4 68.2 22.0 34.2 48.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 25.2 59.0 55.4 126.0 71.5 58.7 25.4 37.6 52.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 76.8 101.1 86.6 156.8 83.2 73.1 34.5 50.5 69.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 62.3 73.6 62.5 145.8 78.1 65.0 27.9 41.1 56.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 87.1 100.5 90.1 143.3 79.5 71.3 47.9 63.1 80.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 63.3 79.3 63.3 156.8 80.5 67.7 25.4 38.9 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 63.0 70.9 61.4 137.8 75.9 62.6 27.8 41.2 57.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 57.8 72.5 66.4 153.4 80.5 68.2 27.9 39.8 53.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 74.3 98.5 78.2 157.2 82.6 71.4 33.0 48.8 67.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 62.4 66.9 62.7 133.7 73.9 60.5 29.9 42.8 57.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 53.0 65.5 60.4 156.9 80.3 68.7 22.1 33.4 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 64.5 66.7 60.5 130.3 72.7 60.2 25.8 39.9 57.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 48.6 64.1 68.2 163.3 81.5 64.9 20.1 30.9 44.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 112.0 137.2 88.3 149.9 81.5 72.1 58.0 79.1 103.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 55.5 62.9 59.9 140.7 76.5 63.3 24.7 36.2 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------