***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 12.2 14.4 -0.6 39.8 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.3 11.5 14.2 -0.5 42.3 43.0 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.9 14.6 -0.3 44.8 45.6 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.1 8.3 12.1 -0.9 32.8 34.6 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.8 12.4 -0.9 33.5 35.3 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.9 9.2 10.5 -0.7 36.1 37.8 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.5 11.8 14.4 -0.4 42.7 43.3 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.6 10.5 -0.8 35.5 37.2 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.1 12.9 -0.8 34.5 36.1 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.1 11.1 11.3 -0.8 35.6 37.1 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.8 10.5 11.8 -0.9 31.8 33.7 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.0 11.1 -0.9 33.5 35.5 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.0 11.1 -0.8 34.2 35.9 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.9 12.9 -0.7 38.5 39.5 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.0 13.4 -1.0 29.7 31.3 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 -0.8 32.9 34.8 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.2 13.9 -0.4 43.2 43.7 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.3 9.5 10.3 -0.9 32.8 34.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 12.5 11.9 14.3 -0.4 44.0 44.6 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.5 5.7 8.4 -0.9 32.0 33.8 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.0 14.1 -0.6 38.8 40.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 11.9 11.4 14.1 -0.4 43.8 44.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 11.9 11.4 14.4 -0.2 46.5 46.9 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.4 12.6 -0.6 39.0 40.2 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.1 13.3 -0.8 35.5 37.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.2 10.6 -0.9 32.3 34.3 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 13.0 11.3 13.7 -0.8 36.8 38.5 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.6 9.7 12.7 -0.9 32.4 33.9 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.2 8.5 9.7 -0.8 34.4 35.8 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.8 12.0 14.5 -0.4 42.7 43.4 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------