***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 12.3 14.2 0.9 65.0 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.9 14.0 0.9 65.9 61.2 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.6 14.3 14.1 1.0 67.6 62.2 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.0 11.7 0.4 58.3 55.7 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 11.7 0.5 60.6 57.7 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.3 10.3 0.8 66.8 61.7 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.1 14.0 0.9 65.7 61.1 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.1 10.3 0.8 65.3 60.8 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.0 12.3 0.7 64.2 60.3 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.8 10.8 0.7 64.0 59.8 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.4 11.5 0.8 65.6 61.4 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.2 11.1 0.8 65.8 61.6 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.8 10.4 0.6 63.7 60.0 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.4 12.4 0.8 66.8 61.8 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.4 12.5 0.6 63.2 59.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.2 11.1 0.7 64.5 60.6 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.2 13.6 0.9 65.0 60.7 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.6 10.1 0.6 62.2 58.6 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.6 12.2 14.1 1.0 67.0 61.9 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.7 8.8 0.6 61.4 58.2 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.7 13.4 0.8 65.0 60.5 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.3 13.5 0.8 64.7 60.5 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.9 11.9 13.9 1.0 68.5 63.0 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.8 12.1 0.8 66.3 61.5 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.9 12.2 12.6 0.8 63.4 59.2 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 10.6 0.5 59.5 57.2 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.5 13.4 0.9 64.6 59.9 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.5 12.1 0.5 61.4 58.0 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.7 9.6 0.7 63.8 59.7 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.4 14.2 1.0 66.2 61.3 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------