***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 11.1 12.6 0.4 56.2 54.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.0 12.5 0.4 56.2 54.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.2 12.5 0.5 57.8 55.8 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.6 10.3 0.1 52.5 52.3 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.8 10.3 0.2 54.4 54.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.9 8.6 0.2 53.9 54.0 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.1 12.4 0.3 55.7 53.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.0 8.9 0.4 57.5 56.5 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 10.8 10.8 10.8 0.4 56.2 55.1 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.5 9.3 0.4 56.3 55.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 10.0 0.4 57.8 56.7 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.2 9.7 0.4 58.2 57.1 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.4 9.6 9.0 0.3 55.4 55.4 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.2 10.9 0.4 57.4 55.5 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.8 11.0 0.3 55.0 53.6 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.0 9.6 0.3 56.6 56.0 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.0 12.0 0.3 54.7 53.1 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.4 8.7 0.3 54.9 54.3 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.1 12.5 0.5 57.7 55.6 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.7 7.4 0.3 55.0 54.6 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 10.5 10.6 11.8 0.4 56.2 54.8 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.1 12.0 0.4 56.5 54.3 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.7 12.3 0.6 59.6 57.0 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 10.6 0.4 57.0 55.5 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.2 11.1 0.3 55.3 53.9 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 9.4 0.3 56.1 55.5 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.6 11.8 0.4 56.0 54.2 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.3 10.6 0.2 54.0 53.2 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.7 8.3 0.3 55.5 55.1 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.3 12.6 0.4 56.6 54.8 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------