***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 12.0 14.2 0.5 62.1 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.8 14.0 0.5 63.0 60.1 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 14.2 14.1 14.1 0.6 67.0 63.1 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.2 9.2 11.9 0.2 54.4 53.0 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.6 11.9 0.3 58.4 56.3 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.7 10.3 0.4 62.4 59.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.9 14.0 0.5 62.5 59.6 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.6 10.4 0.5 63.2 60.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.7 12.5 0.4 62.0 59.3 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.5 10.9 0.4 62.3 59.4 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.8 11.1 11.6 0.4 63.0 60.1 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.8 11.2 0.5 63.8 60.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.4 10.7 0.4 62.1 59.7 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 12.5 0.5 64.2 61.0 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.0 12.8 0.3 57.2 55.4 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.9 11.3 0.4 62.4 59.7 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.1 13.6 0.5 62.4 59.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.3 10.2 0.3 59.6 57.2 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.0 14.1 0.6 65.5 62.1 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.4 8.7 0.3 58.6 56.4 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.4 13.5 0.5 63.1 60.0 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.2 13.6 0.5 63.3 60.4 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.6 11.6 14.0 0.7 68.9 64.8 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.6 12.2 0.5 65.0 61.6 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.7 12.7 0.3 59.1 56.6 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 10.7 0.3 58.2 56.6 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.1 13.4 0.4 60.8 57.9 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.1 12.3 0.2 57.0 55.3 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.4 9.7 0.4 61.5 58.8 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 14.2 0.5 63.6 60.5 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------