***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 24.6 22.4 0.7 59.3 57.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.6 22.4 0.8 60.0 57.9 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.8 22.5 0.8 60.2 58.1 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.6 20.8 0.6 57.8 56.3 14.3 15.9 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.2 21.0 0.7 58.9 57.2 21.8 23.4 24.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 22.9 23.3 19.4 0.8 60.8 57.5 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.1 22.2 0.7 59.4 57.5 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 19.6 0.7 59.2 56.9 10.7 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.9 21.4 0.8 59.8 57.9 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.5 20.2 0.7 59.0 57.2 20.9 22.6 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.1 20.8 0.9 61.3 58.5 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.5 20.7 0.9 61.5 58.3 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.4 20.3 0.9 61.8 58.4 21.7 23.3 24.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 21.0 23.8 21.0 0.7 58.8 57.4 21.3 22.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.8 21.2 0.7 59.2 57.2 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.9 20.7 0.9 61.6 58.5 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.8 21.9 0.8 60.3 57.9 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.6 19.4 0.6 57.1 55.9 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.5 22.5 0.8 60.7 58.4 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.4 17.3 0.4 55.2 54.5 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.9 22.0 0.8 59.7 57.8 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.1 23.6 22.0 0.8 60.4 57.9 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 24.4 23.7 22.5 0.9 61.0 58.7 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.5 21.0 0.7 58.8 57.2 21.1 22.7 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.3 21.0 0.7 59.2 57.3 21.2 22.6 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.7 20.1 0.7 58.5 56.0 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.2 21.5 0.7 58.8 57.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.0 21.1 0.7 58.8 56.8 21.7 23.2 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.8 18.4 0.5 55.9 55.1 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.4 22.5 0.8 59.8 57.8 21.1 22.6 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------