***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 24.8 24.4 1.1 69.6 65.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.1 24.4 1.3 71.5 67.2 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.3 24.8 1.4 73.9 69.3 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 17.8 17.8 22.9 0.9 66.2 63.4 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 25.5 25.6 23.3 1.2 70.8 67.1 23.4 24.4 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 24.5 24.8 21.5 1.2 72.9 68.9 22.4 23.4 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 24.6 24.6 24.2 1.2 69.5 65.6 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 14.1 14.4 21.8 1.3 73.4 69.0 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.4 23.8 1.3 73.4 69.2 23.0 24.0 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.2 22.5 1.3 73.2 68.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.5 23.2 1.4 74.0 69.9 23.2 24.1 25.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 24.6 25.0 23.0 1.5 75.2 70.9 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 25.6 26.0 22.8 1.5 75.4 71.2 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.0 25.3 23.3 1.4 74.3 69.3 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 24.6 25.2 23.5 0.8 65.0 62.4 23.4 24.4 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 26.1 26.5 23.1 1.4 74.1 70.1 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.2 24.3 24.0 1.3 72.5 67.6 22.1 23.0 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 23.9 24.1 21.6 1.2 71.6 67.2 21.9 22.9 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 24.7 25.0 24.7 1.4 73.9 69.1 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 20.1 20.2 19.5 1.1 70.7 66.2 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.1 25.3 24.4 1.3 72.2 68.0 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 24.8 25.1 24.1 1.4 73.5 68.3 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.8 25.3 24.7 1.6 76.4 71.1 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 24.7 25.0 23.3 1.4 73.9 69.1 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.8 23.0 1.0 68.0 64.5 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 25.3 25.6 22.5 1.2 72.2 68.4 23.2 24.2 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 24.7 24.7 23.6 1.0 68.5 64.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 24.7 25.4 23.3 0.9 66.7 63.9 23.5 24.5 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.6 20.6 1.1 70.9 66.4 17.5 18.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 24.7 24.9 24.6 1.3 71.1 67.0 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------