***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 9999.0 0.7 4.5 34.8 32.3 24.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.0 2.6 5.0 42.6 38.4 29.5 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.3 3.0 5.2 41.1 36.8 28.5 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 3.3 5.0 4.7 35.2 34.9 26.0 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.3 3.0 3.9 31.1 30.2 21.4 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.7 4.9 6.1 45.1 40.2 29.4 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.0 3.7 5.1 43.2 37.3 30.0 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 5.0 6.7 5.3 39.1 31.8 24.9 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 2.9 3.3 4.3 33.6 30.5 23.3 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 3.2 3.8 5.3 38.7 31.0 24.6 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 3.0 3.9 3.9 33.8 31.6 23.6 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 2.5 3.6 4.1 34.5 31.4 23.1 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.1 30.3 28.6 20.5 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.1 4.2 6.1 43.1 34.6 26.7 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 1.1 1.4 3.2 26.8 30.2 21.3 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 3.0 3.7 4.0 32.1 30.8 22.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.6 5.3 43.6 38.5 31.0 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 3.1 3.2 6.1 40.9 29.5 25.0 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.0 4.0 5.1 42.3 38.0 28.7 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 3.7 4.5 7.6 44.2 30.8 26.3 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.3 3.1 4.5 35.5 32.8 24.6 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.2 5.5 6.1 46.2 39.3 30.7 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.3 3.0 5.3 41.2 35.8 26.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 2.5 2.7 5.3 39.3 30.8 24.8 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 80 20 0 100 1.9 2.6 4.4 32.3 31.4 22.8 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 2.2 2.9 4.4 34.2 30.5 23.1 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.4 4.7 34.8 32.2 24.2 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.5 3.4 4.0 31.6 32.7 23.4 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 4.8 5.6 6.7 43.6 30.1 25.6 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.8 4.7 38.8 35.9 26.8 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------