***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 11.5 10.4 96.0 64.6 46.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.7 10.1 86.8 60.9 46.3 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 14.1 10.2 94.8 63.3 45.5 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.4 9.7 92.3 63.8 44.3 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.1 12.6 10.5 99.0 65.7 44.6 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.4 83.1 61.9 46.0 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.7 13.5 10.3 86.9 60.4 45.8 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 6.3 19.1 12.5 101.5 66.3 49.0 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.0 14.0 11.5 107.4 67.8 47.2 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.8 14.5 13.2 104.7 67.0 48.9 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.4 11.1 9.8 95.4 65.4 46.2 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.5 9.4 94.8 65.0 45.7 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.1 9.6 81.2 61.1 43.8 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.3 20.7 14.9 106.3 66.8 49.6 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.2 6.8 7.5 76.0 58.5 39.7 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.7 9.0 82.9 61.9 44.3 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.9 9.4 82.3 59.3 45.4 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.8 17.3 15.6 103.7 66.2 49.2 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.9 10.1 89.0 61.2 46.0 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.2 16.8 94.0 63.2 49.6 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.4 15.5 10.3 105.7 67.1 46.1 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.2 13.7 10.1 86.6 60.0 46.1 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.7 10.8 95.7 63.2 46.3 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.7 17.2 13.7 104.5 66.3 48.7 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.1 14.8 11.1 94.1 63.5 45.4 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.8 9.6 8.8 89.5 63.5 45.1 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 16.0 11.4 92.9 63.3 46.0 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.7 8.1 8.6 83.2 61.2 41.9 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 9.8 26.2 16.6 101.6 65.2 49.7 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.0 10.3 88.8 61.6 45.7 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------