***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 6.0 6.0 60.7 49.2 35.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.6 6.9 6.5 59.8 49.8 38.1 3.7 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 8.6 7.0 70.5 54.8 40.6 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.8 9.1 7.4 69.9 55.4 39.0 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.0 7.5 70.1 55.1 38.7 2.7 5.7 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.4 82.5 60.2 45.6 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.7 7.0 6.3 55.9 48.9 37.0 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.9 14.6 9.6 79.0 57.9 43.2 5.3 10.9 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 8.6 7.6 69.4 54.6 39.0 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.7 9.4 75.8 56.3 41.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.1 7.5 77.2 57.5 40.3 2.8 6.0 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.7 7.2 73.3 56.0 41.0 3.1 6.3 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.9 7.9 71.6 55.8 42.3 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.1 10.6 9.8 68.9 53.2 42.1 4.3 9.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.7 7.1 72.6 57.5 39.2 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.9 7.5 75.0 57.4 41.7 2.6 5.3 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.1 7.5 61.3 51.0 36.8 3.8 6.9 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.6 9.9 11.3 75.6 55.3 42.7 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 6.7 6.8 63.9 51.1 39.0 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.8 14.5 82.3 58.5 46.6 4.5 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.4 6.6 65.2 52.5 37.7 3.2 7.6 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 3.2 8.0 8.4 68.1 53.8 38.8 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.5 7.3 67.8 52.5 39.9 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.3 9.6 74.3 54.7 41.7 3.7 8.4 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.8 7.2 65.4 52.7 38.2 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.3 7.2 77.5 58.4 45.0 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.4 6.9 6.9 62.7 50.9 37.3 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.8 7.5 74.9 58.2 40.0 2.6 5.7 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 15.1 12.6 76.6 55.9 43.8 6.0 12.2 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.8 6.0 6.3 61.0 50.7 38.9 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------