***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 11.4 9.0 123.2 71.8 42.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.3 8.8 106.8 67.6 41.5 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 4.0 15.8 8.6 119.3 70.6 43.6 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.5 21.8 8.8 116.1 70.2 41.6 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.1 14.5 8.6 111.5 68.8 42.5 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 13.3 10.6 98.7 66.1 42.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.8 9.1 104.9 67.4 41.4 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 19.0 9.5 104.9 66.5 46.0 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 3.4 13.6 8.7 113.4 69.2 43.4 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.2 16.6 9.7 107.0 67.1 45.4 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.1 13.1 8.2 107.8 67.7 42.8 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.5 12.4 7.8 105.4 66.9 43.6 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 3.5 13.1 8.9 101.7 66.7 42.5 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.7 21.4 11.9 129.5 73.0 48.9 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.2 17.6 8.8 128.7 73.2 40.1 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.2 11.7 8.4 105.0 67.4 42.5 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.0 8.8 8.8 100.9 66.3 41.8 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 18.1 11.6 110.7 68.0 48.3 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 12.2 8.7 113.3 69.1 42.4 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 19.6 13.7 108.4 67.4 50.4 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.7 15.8 8.4 120.0 70.9 43.0 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.3 10.6 8.8 107.9 67.7 43.0 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.4 14.6 9.1 125.7 72.2 45.4 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.4 18.1 10.7 122.0 71.1 47.5 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.8 17.8 9.5 117.6 70.6 43.5 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.4 12.4 8.5 101.6 66.5 43.8 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 16.9 9.7 118.3 70.8 43.7 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.5 13.6 8.7 118.7 70.8 40.7 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.3 27.8 12.7 113.0 68.8 49.9 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.9 10.6 8.9 111.0 68.7 41.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------