***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 34.0 29.9 73.1 44.4 37.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 22.4 29.8 30.5 71.5 42.0 37.3 23.8 35.7 49.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.3 38.4 31.0 76.5 45.7 40.0 28.6 41.7 57.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 35.4 50.2 30.7 73.1 48.4 41.4 35.6 51.9 71.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 25.3 35.6 30.5 73.4 46.5 40.0 25.7 38.6 54.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.1 37.2 38.5 76.1 46.5 40.4 27.6 39.9 54.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.6 32.0 30.8 70.5 41.5 36.7 25.8 38.4 53.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 44.8 59.3 36.9 78.3 44.2 39.0 45.8 66.8 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 28.3 37.8 32.0 76.3 46.7 40.3 28.1 40.5 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 30.7 41.3 37.6 78.7 45.2 39.4 31.6 45.6 62.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 27.2 36.5 29.5 75.0 46.9 40.1 27.3 38.8 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 26.4 35.2 28.4 73.0 43.9 38.1 27.1 40.1 55.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 24.4 32.5 30.5 67.6 41.6 36.5 26.5 39.1 54.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 36.7 51.3 42.7 82.9 46.3 40.6 37.5 55.5 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.8 31.0 26.6 69.2 47.0 39.0 21.0 33.5 48.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.2 30.5 28.9 70.0 44.4 38.5 23.0 34.7 49.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 21.0 29.7 30.9 69.7 40.2 36.4 24.9 36.8 51.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 34.0 45.4 44.6 80.6 44.0 38.9 35.2 51.5 70.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 27.8 36.4 30.7 73.4 43.0 38.3 28.7 41.9 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 47.9 57.9 52.5 80.5 42.2 38.6 49.5 65.2 82.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 50.7 38.9 29.7 75.3 46.9 40.3 27.2 41.7 60.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 25.9 34.5 33.3 73.7 41.5 38.4 28.3 41.2 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 28.3 36.5 32.5 77.2 44.7 39.7 28.5 40.5 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 33.1 46.3 39.3 81.3 46.0 40.4 34.1 50.2 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 31.5 41.1 32.1 72.3 44.7 38.4 31.9 45.6 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 21.8 30.0 28.8 71.7 43.6 37.9 23.2 34.8 48.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.2 36.3 32.8 72.6 44.0 37.7 27.1 41.8 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.8 31.1 28.8 71.5 47.7 40.3 21.4 32.7 46.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 56.5 73.4 48.6 81.8 44.0 39.4 59.5 81.4 106.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 23.3 30.4 30.3 71.8 42.3 37.2 24.0 36.0 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------